Limitations of 'Hanlon’s Razor'
Hanlon’s Razor is a great mental model to employ.
Hanlon’s Razor
To unpack this, we need to look at what is meant by Hanlon’s Razor. The term is named for Robert J. Hanlon though proper attribution is widely disputed. Variations of the idea exist, but it is typically rendered as something like:
“Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”
The idea behind this heuristic is that we should refrain from automatically assuming evil intent when a harmful action occurs. There could be, and often are, other plausible reasons as to why such an act transpired. One of these alternative explanations could be stupidity on the part of the doer (though there might be slightly nicer ways of putting it).
This mental model is known as a razor because, like Occam’s Razor, it is used to shave off unnecessary explanations thus leaving only the most probable option (stupidity in this case) for consideration.
In all honesty, this is a valuable rule of thumb for our everyday interactions with others. Typically, when something undesirable happens to us, it’s not because of the deliberate efforts of someone else to negatively impact us. Therefore, as a general rule, it is sound advice to refrain from jumping to conclusions unnecessarily when there may be no need to assign blame.
Hanlon’s Razor is a great mental model to employ.
Except when it isn’t.
Limitations of Hanlon’s Razor
The problem is that overuse of this concept can lead to naivete. Too many people routinely assume incompetence nowadays when it is much more likely that malicious intent is at play. We live in a world controlled by tyrants who seek to control assets and despotically reign over all of us. They operate according to sinister plans they have laid out over time.
Ascribing their actions to incompetence provides them a great deal of cover because it serves as a cloak that occults their true intentions. This in turn permits the average person to deny the gravity of the situation at hand. Average citizens can assume there are no insidious networks of powerful people seeking the destruction of our way of life. They (the citizens) may scream at their TV about how so-and-so can’t do their job, but the complaints often go no further.
This is a problem the world over. In my own country, the U.S., I hear people nearly every day complain about the incompetence of this politician or that lawmaker, etc. It’s true that some of these individuals may exhibit true incompetence, but that is not the case for the system writ large. Our systems have become co-opted over time. This has been done deliberately.
Let’s take a quick survey of the situation. Our Constitution has been rendered wholly defunct. Our rights have been trampled to almost unparalleled degrees the past few years. Our money is fake. Our food is fake. So much of our establishment medical practices are fake. The vast majority of the churches are also fake.
Can all this be attributed to stupidity?
Of course not. The people doing this aren’t incompetent. They’re highly intelligent. Diabolical, but intelligent. Their plans may not always work. Their ambition may at times potentially hamper their judgment. But they are not incompetent.
I’ve written before about how I believe that many people operate within an incomplete worldview. Part of this incomplete worldview results from the confusion that leads to the misattribution of incompetence over malice.
This is where I often deliberately turn Hanlon’s Razor on its head.
“Never attribute to stupidity that which is adequately explained by malice.”
I’m not advocating this as the underlying principle of our everyday interactions with our family, friends, neighbors, or colleagues. I am, however, very much suggesting this as the default operating principle for interactions with the government or other establishment institutions. Some of the personnel within these institutions may be fine people, but those running many of these institutions are truly nefarious.
As an example, what’s my default setting for when I hear my government declare anything? My default setting is to immediately disbelieve it until it can be sufficiently substantiated. Why? Many years of extreme lies, corruption, evil designs, and bad faith have led me to operate along this default setting.
By nature, I’m not a pessimistic person. Quite the opposite actually. However, I’m not naïve. I’m realistic about the situation we find ourselves in. The first step in seeking a way out of this mess is to admit just how much of a mess we’re in.
What about you? When you hear government or establishment officials speak or make decrees, is your first thought to attribute their actions to incompetence or malice?
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